Why the Patriots have the best short-pass game in the NFL

[AZPats]

Yhere seeems to bea feeling that the Patriots have a very poor untaleted Offesnive line. It was injureed last season and at one tome 4 rookies were presssed inot service ot start. Some at positions they ad never played in their lives. Of course the line was not up to ususal standards.


But it was due to rawness and inexpereience, NOT LACK of talent. I feel that this crew has the makings of the very best line that Belechick has ever fielded with the Pats.

The tackles are fine and the depth appears good. Waddle was acquired injured, and was a fair to mediocre starting tackle with the Lions. He is a better swing tackle than is usual. The interior has had much more talent drafted there than is the Belechick norm. All the players are young, big, talented and relatively high picks for their positions, No one is a raw rookie anymore. They have all paid their dues, and now have some NFL playing experience. It will show in 2016.

 

[spacecrime]

That's why they can throw in 2.5 seconds, he's only looking a small part of the field post snap.

AH!!!!

As they say at daybreak on that peninsula just east of Salem, 'Dawn comes to Marblehead.'

Using part of the field explains a lot.

In an earlier post I railed against him throwing low percentage passes when he wasn't being pressured. I also thought about but didn't mention him tossing the ball out of bounds after two seconds when there was no pressure (because I didn't want to turn my post into a rant), but this explains very well why he does that. He's only using part of the field.

It's counter-intuitive: only use half the field for greater success, but that's what Big Ben did his first (and arguably best) year in the league.

 

[R+L=Negan]

I think that they still need to sign a rb like a young version of Dillon or Blount...

It really is the only thing missing from our offense. Hopefully this year we can find a nice committee and draft a stud next year. Deep class imo and a big need.

 

[Mazz22]

AH!!!!

As they say at daybreak on that peninsula just east of Salem, 'Dawn comes to Marblehead.'

Using part of the field explains a lot.

In an earlier post I railed against him throwing low percentage passes when he wasn't being pressured. I also thought about but didn't mention him tossing the ball out of bounds after two seconds when there was no pressure (because I didn't want to turn my post into a rant), but this explains very well why he does that. He's only using part of the field.

It's counter-intuitive: only use half the field for greater success, but that's what Big Ben did his first (and arguably best) year in the league.

The other issue is Brady is very inconsistent outside the numbers. He completes under 60 percent there and over 70 percent between the numbers. The offense is to cater to Brady's strengths which makes sense and to also go against the grain of the NFL.

 

[BostonTim]

I have been mislead no doubt by some vague and general stats, like 172-51 and 425-150 and so forth. So I greatly appreciate the in-depth analysis. Just imagine if Tom could learn to throw deep, or throw outside the lines or throw to the right once in a while or not mindlessly fling the ball away in 2 seconds or not target a spot only his guy can catch without stopping to check on the actual coverage and throwing to a different spot than the spot he's thrown the pass to 1000 times in practice. Holy crap. He'd easily have had at least 50 more wins.

Cheers, BostonTim

 

[spacecrime]

I have been mislead no doubt by some vague and general stats, like 172-51 and 425-150 and so forth. So I greatly appreciate the in-depth analysis. Just imagine if Tom could learn to throw deep, or throw outside the lines or throw to the right once in a while or not mindlessly fling the ball away in 2 seconds or not target a spot only his guy can catch without stopping to check on the actual coverage and throwing to a different spot than the spot he's thrown the pass to 1000 times in practice. Holy crap. He'd easily have had at least 50 more wins.

Cheers, BostonTim

Well, I blame Brady. If he'd take an interest in the game once in a while it would help, instead of just mailing in practices and being so laid back during games.

 

[Mazz22]

I have been mislead no doubt by some vague and general stats, like 172-51 and 425-150 and so forth. So I greatly appreciate the in-depth analysis. Just imagine if Tom could learn to throw deep, or throw outside the lines or throw to the right once in a while or not mindlessly fling the ball away in 2 seconds or not target a spot only his guy can catch without stopping to check on the actual coverage and throwing to a different spot than the spot he's thrown the pass to 1000 times in practice. Holy crap. He'd easily have had at least 50 more wins.

Cheers, BostonTim

Well done. But we have to gripe/nit pick about something, don't we?

I have always said Brady is not perfect, no QB is, but he is as close to perfect as anyone who has ever played the position.

 

[dchester]

Being the copy cat league that it is, then why is this a patriots thing? If it is intended because its better, then why is there not a knock down fight for this gameplan? I think some of it is intent, but I think a lot of teams throw shorter than they used to, but I also think the throw in under 2 seconds thing is to avoid quick pressure that has been a constant lately. The pats have always ran a short passing game, but lately, its been get the ball out as fast as you can because here they come on a missed block. When you are getting rid of the ball this fast and still take that many sacks, something is wrong. Like I said, it used to not be this way.

Answer: There aren't enough Brady's to go around.

 

[AZPats]

It really is the only thing missing from our offense. Hopefully this year we can find a nice committee and draft a stud next year. Deep class imo and a big need.

No there is a big piece missing from the team ever since Randy Moss went over the hill. The Pats don't have the big fast "X" or split end who can go down the field and catch the outside deep passes and the occasional deep post, fighting off the defender and catching reliably. The successful candidate must have great speed and good size and very good hands. Hogan lacks the great speed and hisi size is merely OK. The only Pats WR with the requirements is still Aaron Dobson, which explains why he was drafted in round 2, very unusual for a Pats WR. Before injury the rookie looked the part. Hopefully, he finally remains injury free.

A great line makes a merely good RB much better. BB has been rebuilding the line, outside first and then inside, preparing for the time when the QB is Not superb at the short pass, merely good, while adding to the blocking talent. I think it is significant that BB has not invested in drafting RB talent before the line is ready.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

No there is a big piece missing from the team ever since Randy Moss went over the hill. The Pats don't have the big fast "X" or split end who can go down the field and catch the outside deep passes and the occasional deep post, fighting off the defender and catching reliably. The successful candidate must have great speed and good size and very good hands. Hogan lacks the great speed and hisi size is merely OK. The only Pats WR with the requirements is still Aaron Dobson, which explains why he was drafted in round 2, very unusual for a Pats WR. Before injury the rookie looked the part. Hopefully, he finally remains injury free.

A great line makes a merely good RB much better. BB has been rebuilding the line, outside first and then inside, preparing for the time when the QB is Not superb at the short pass, merely good, while adding to the blocking talent. I think it is significant that BB has not invested in drafting RB talent before the line is ready.

Dobson just needs moar time to figure shit out...

 

[jetsknicks1]

I have the opposite observation. To me it's totally planned (to toss fast). It drives me nuts to watch Brady toss the ball in under 2 seconds when there is no pressure. Sometimes people come at him, and he hurries a throw, but those highly successful passes generally come when he is not in danger or being hit.

It's the same as him throwing low. I understand protecting the receiver and reducing the change of an INT, but sometimes the receiver goes to a knee slide when there is no one near him because that's where Brady threw the ball. Why not hit a receiver in stride once in a while?

OTOH, this system works. I'm old enough to remember the late 80's early 90's so I like this system because it's more fun to watch another 14-2 season than another 2-14 season.

But Brady often throws fast when there is zero semblance of a pass rush. Where the oline fails is when Brady doesn't have 2 seconds, and it happens way too often. I mean, 2 seconds?

---------- Post added at 10:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 AM ----------

Hey! Where ya been?

The offseason is boring lol.

 

[O_P_T]

Except when they face a team that can pressure and cover like Denver last year, the Ravens in 2014 who should have beaten us, Denver the year before, ravens before that and then the Giants. Our offense is potent but it has its share of weaknesses as well that surface in the post-season. At some point with Brady being 39 and our fragile receivers who should not be used as a sub for a run game every season, we have to get a quality back and be more balanced. It is amazing to watch us get up by 20+ points and still throw because we have no one to pound the rock. All the unnecessary punishment to our receivers, brady an the Oline who are asked to pass protect the majority of the time.

From Pat's Pulpit.

Patriots QB Tom Brady has improved his ability to handle pressure in the pocket since 2013
By Rich Hill  @PP_Rich_Hill on Jul 12, 2016, 6:18a 14

Brady keeps getting better with age and he’s handling pressure better than ever.

The New England Patriots offensive line didn’t give quarterback Tom Brady much time in the pocket in 2015. Brady had one of the fastest releases in the league because he would’ve been clobbered if he held the ball any longer than he actually did. The quick passes eventually negated the pass rush and prevented teams from generating as much pressure as they could have registered.

According to Football Outsiders, Brady faced a below-average amount of pressure on just 25.7% of his snaps. Brady likely would’ve seen one of the highest pressure rates if he held on to the football as much as the “mobile” quarterbacks, like Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (31.7%) or Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (30.2%).

To add context, Bengals QB Andy Dalton was one of the few quarterbacks to get rid of the ball as quickly as Brady and Dalton faced the least amount of pressure in the entire league on just 18.5% of his snaps. This just shows the porous nature of the Patriots offensive line in 2015.

Football Outsiders notes that Brady was the 6th best quarterback under pressure by DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) in 2015, which definitely came in handy. DVOA compares how Brady would fare compared to an average quarterback in a similar down-and-distance scenario.

Brady was also the 6th best quarterback when not pressured. When Football Outsiders compared how quarterbacks perform with and without pressure, Brady fared the 8th best in the league, meaning that pressure affected him the 8th least in the NFL.

Context is important, though, because the seven quarterbacks that ranked ahead of him were awful. Bears QB Jay Cutler, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Browns QB Josh McCown, Broncos QB Peyton Manning, Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, and Ravens QB Joe Flacco all ranked in the bottom 50% of the league in performance while not under pressure. Bortles, McCown, Flacco, and Manning ranked in the bottom 25%, with Manning ranking last overall.

In other words, these quarterbacks struggled when they didn’t have a defender in their face, so they couldn’t get much worse.

Brady, on the other hand, was exceptional when he wasn’t pressured and just as exceptional when he was. Four other quarterbacks finished in the same realm as Brady: Cardinals QB Carson Palmer, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, and, surprisingly, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor. Taylor will be one to watch in 2016.

Football Outsiders has tracked their pressure scores over the past three years (see 2013 and 2014 here) and while Brady has remained fairly consistent when he has a clean pocket, he has dramatically improved in the face of pressure.

In fact, Brady has improved each season from -78.1% DVOA in 2013, to -67.3% DVOA in 2014, and -38.5% DVOA in 2015. For reference, Brady’s 2013 season would have ranked 25th this past year and his 2014 season would have ranked 20th. His improvements have his 2015 performance ranked 6th.

I think a large share of the improvement rests with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has tailored an offense to get rid of the ball quickly and to take advantage of Brady’s skill set. Brady deserves plenty of credit for executing the play calls to perfection. Much like how he has added quarterback scrambles into his tool box, Brady identified his weakness against pressure and has adjusted to improve his overall game.

Ideally the Patriots will improve their pass blocking so Brady doesn’t have to face as much pressure as he did last season. It would be better for the entire offense if his pressure rate better reflected how quickly he released the football.

But if the line continues to struggle to buy time, Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the league that can handle the pressure and keep the offense on track.

 

[Mazz22]

From Pat's Pulpit.

Great read. Thanks for posting. Brady is the best BUT he can't release the ball in under two seconds if no one is open. That is what happened vs Denver. They pressured and had the LBs and DBs to cover. Same thing vs the Ravens and the Giants. That has been the formula to beat this short passing game now since 2010 when he got rid of Moss. That being said, the new guys we added with Bennett and Hogan should hopefully provide a new look and help stretch the field along with Lewis being back who is the biggest mismatch coming out of the back field.

 

[spacecrime]

The offseason is boring lol.

I'm not even laughing to myself, let alone out loud. It is really dead now.

 

[Hawg73]

I have the opposite observation. To me it's totally planned (to toss fast). It drives me nuts to watch Brady toss the ball in under 2 seconds when there is no pressure. Sometimes people come at him, and he hurries a throw, but those highly successful passes generally come when he is not in danger or being hit.

It's the same as him throwing low. I understand protecting the receiver and reducing the change of an INT, but sometimes the receiver goes to a knee slide when there is no one near him because that's where Brady threw the ball. Why not hit a receiver in stride once in a while?

OTOH, this system works. I'm old enough to remember the late 80's early 90's so I like this system because it's more fun to watch another 14-2 season than another 2-14 season.

But Brady often throws fast when there is zero semblance of a pass rush. Where the oline fails is when Brady doesn't have 2 seconds, and it happens way too often. I mean, 2 seconds?

---------- Post added at 10:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:56 AM ----------

I have similar thoughts.

I realize how successful our system has been and know that bitching about what we do is not terribly bright, but......

There are times when I wish we COULD hit a WR downfield once in a while and it almost never happens. I get jealous watching Antonio Brown or some of the other top WRs just driving people crazy outside the hashes and wish we could combine that sort of approach with the quick-strike stuff that has been the staple of our offense ever since Randy flipped out and shot his way out of Foxboro. That would make us completely instead of just mostly unstoppable.

While watching slot guys like Edelman make a shoetop catch and grind out 11 yards is very effective by all statistical measures, I find myself longing for the simple beauty of a WR breaking open downfield and getting hit in stride for a huge gain. Our ultra-careful method is efficient and successful, but not necessarily fulfilling to watch.

There. I feel dirty for saying it (for about the 100th time), but strangely relieved.

 

[O_P_T]

Great read. Thanks for posting. Brady is the best BUT he can't release the ball in under two seconds if no one is open. That is what happened vs Denver. They pressured and had the LBs and DBs to cover. Same thing vs the Ravens and the Giants. That has been the formula to beat this short passing game now since 2010 when he got rid of Moss. That being said, the new guys we added with Bennett and Hogan should hopefully provide a new look and help stretch the field along with Lewis being back who is the biggest mismatch coming out of the back field.

So if Randy Moss was the answer, what happened in '07?

Even then it took a circus catch to beat us.

Those Same Giants handled us pretty well, not so much due to coverage, but to pressure.

As far as the Giants and Denver are concerned, we had guys hurt or on IR that otherwise would have made a difference.

In the second Giants SB, Gronk was a decoy because he was hurt, if he was healthy, would that have made a difference?

Again even so, it took an amazing catch down the sideline to beat us.

:shrug_n:

Same thing for Denver this year. Lewis was out, Edelman wasn't 100% and with the way Denver was anticipating the snap count it might not have mattered.

Even so, it took a missed extra point to miss sending that game to OT.

I'm not sure which Baltimore games you're referring to.

But in the Denver and NY games, even with that "formula", we were one or two plays short of winning all those games. that doesn't strike me as being proof that there's a "formula" that makes victory highly probable.

 

[HSanders]

What drives us Pats fans more crazy, watching BB's "give up 56,994,311 yards per game but limit points allowed" defense or the "peck them to death 28,944,361 plays per td" offense with no run game?

 

[Mazz22]

So if Randy Moss was the answer, what happened in '07?

Even then it took a circus catch to beat us.

Those Same Giants handled us pretty well, not so much due to coverage, but to pressure.

As far as the Giants and Denver are concerned, we had guys hurt or on IR that otherwise would have made a difference.

In the second Giants SB, Gronk was a decoy because he was hurt, if he was healthy, would that have made a difference?

Again even so, it took an amazing catch down the sideline to beat us.

:shrug_n:

Same thing for Denver this year. Lewis was out, Edelman wasn't 100% and with the way Denver was anticipating the snap count it might not have mattered.

Even so, it took a missed extra point to miss sending that game to OT.

I'm not sure which Baltimore games you're referring to.

But in the Denver and NY games, even with that "formula", we were one or two plays short of winning all those games. that doesn't strike me as being proof that there's a "formula" that makes victory highly probable.

I never said Moss was the answer. I just noted that since we got rid of him and went with this TE predicated offense with no deep threat that we have been beaten by the same formula every time in the post-season. Pressure Brady and cover the middle. We were successful in large part in 2014 because we at least had LaFell on the outside which was better than any target Brady had previous to Moss. That being said, the Pats did not predict LaFell's injury and decline last year so perhaps with the Hogan and Bennett moves they are trying to get back to a more versatile offense that is not focused just between the numbers. At least I hope so anyways.

 

[TommyD420]

Probably but only because that hack Brady has a noodle arm.

It's true. He watches Chad Pennington throw and says, "Holy crap, what a laser!"

 

[O_P_T]

I never said Moss was the answer. I just noted that since we got rid of him and went with this TE predicated offense with no deep threat that we have been beaten by the same formula every time in the post-season. Pressure Brady and cover the middle. We were successful in large part in 2014 because we at least had LaFell on the outside which was better than any target Brady had previous to Moss. That being said, the Pats did not predict LaFell's injury and decline last year so perhaps with the Hogan and Bennett moves they are trying to get back to a more versatile offense that is not focused just between the numbers. At least I hope so anyways.

So if part of this "formula" is to "pressure Brady", then how does a deep threat alter that?

If the defense is putting pressure on TFB+, then just how is having a WR running a deep route going to make a difference?

If he doesn't have enough time to hit the quick routes, in what universe, would he have enough time to hit the deep routes?

It makes no sense, IMHO, to claim that we need to "take the top off the defense", or whatever trendy phrase is current for having a WR pose a deep threat, as an antidote to the defense putting pressure on the QB.

Those routes simply take too much time to make any difference in how the rush can or cannot effect the game.

Now if your point is that we need to be able to stretch the field horizontally to free up the middle, then I have no argument.

I would love to have the ability to force the defense to cover side line to sideline, with the short routes, to prevent them from clogging the middle.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean we need a "Deep threat WR" to do that.

How many times has Gronk or a RB lined up wide and drawn a LB in coverage?

I'd take that matchup any day.

Even if a DB lines up with Gronk wide, it's probably a mismatch.

If they double cover Gronk out wide, that leaves less people to cover the middle.

So there's still a whole lot one can do with scheme, to gain a mismatch and high probability play, which is exactly what was discussed in the link I cited in the OP.

Simple question.

In all these playoff losses that you cite, how many occurred where injuries didn't limit the performance of one of the TE's, slot receivers, and/or RB's?

Yes, I realize injuries are part of the game and are not an excuse. My point is that your alleged "formula" seems to work, barely, when injuries limit the ability of the offense to work as intended.

So on what basis do you suggest that if we had a "deep threat WR" that that element of the offense would be immune to injury?

You've already acknowledged JoJo's injury had an impact. So why wouldn't any other WR face a similar risk?

If you're suggesting that we keep sufficient WR's on the 53 man roster to ensure that injuries won't impact that position, which other position do you suggest we reduce the number of players?

It's always a crap shoot deciding how much depth you need at any given position, and if one has a rash of injuries in a certain spot it's easy to second guess the GM/Coach.