Why the Patriots have the best short-pass game in the NFL

[D2maine]

I never said Moss was the answer. I just noted that since we got rid of him and went with this TE predicated offense with no deep threat that we have been beaten by the same formula every time in the post-season. Pressure Brady and cover the middle. We were successful in large part in 2014 because we at least had LaFell on the outside which was better than any target Brady had previous to Moss. That being said, the Pats did not predict LaFell's injury and decline last year so perhaps with the Hogan and Bennett moves they are trying to get back to a more versatile offense that is not focused just between the numbers. At least I hope so anyways.

the pressure brady clog the middle since moss? that was the formula the giants used in 07. :shrug:

 

[jetsknicks1]

It's true. He watches Chad Pennington throw and says, "Holy crap, what a laser!"

When you think of Chad, you think cannon.

 

[Patriots71]

The other issue is Brady is very inconsistent outside the numbers. He completes under 60 percent there and over 70 percent between the numbers. The offense is to cater to Brady's strengths which makes sense and to also go against the grain of the NFL.

When Brady had good receivers outside the numbers, he was good outside the numbers. When was the last time he had that? Moss? Brady throws where the team has the best success, which is why he has the best success. At this point he does not have a guy that can turn a 360 on a back should pass 10 feet in the air like Aaron Rodgers does, but he does make the best of what he has to get the most out of it. Its hard to say something is bad when it wins more than anyone else ever.

 

[Mazz22]

So if part of this "formula" is to "pressure Brady", then how does a deep threat alter that?

If the defense is putting pressure on TFB+, then just how is having a WR running a deep route going to make a difference?

If he doesn't have enough time to hit the quick routes, in what universe, would he have enough time to hit the deep routes?

It makes no sense, IMHO, to claim that we need to "take the top off the defense", or whatever trendy phrase is current for having a WR pose a deep threat, as an antidote to the defense putting pressure on the QB.

Those routes simply take too much time to make any difference in how the rush can or cannot effect the game.

Now if your point is that we need to be able to stretch the field horizontally to free up the middle, then I have no argument.

I would love to have the ability to force the defense to cover side line to sideline, with the short routes, to prevent them from clogging the middle.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean we need a "Deep threat WR" to do that.

How many times has Gronk or a RB lined up wide and drawn a LB in coverage?

I'd take that matchup any day.

Even if a DB lines up with Gronk wide, it's probably a mismatch.

If they double cover Gronk out wide, that leaves less people to cover the middle.

So there's still a whole lot one can do with scheme, to gain a mismatch and high probability play, which is exactly what was discussed in the link I cited in the OP.

Simple question.

In all these playoff losses that you cite, how many occurred where injuries didn't limit the performance of one of the TE's, slot receivers, and/or RB's?

Yes, I realize injuries are part of the game and are not an excuse. My point is that your alleged "formula" seems to work, barely, when injuries limit the ability of the offense to work as intended.

So on what basis do you suggest that if we had a "deep threat WR" that that element of the offense would be immune to injury?

You've already acknowledged JoJo's injury had an impact. So why wouldn't any other WR face a similar risk?

If you're suggesting that we keep sufficient WR's on the 53 man roster to ensure that injuries won't impact that position, which other position do you suggest we reduce the number of players?

It's always a crap shoot deciding how much depth you need at any given position, and if one has a rash of injuries in a certain spot it's easy to second guess the GM/Coach.

To be honest, I would settle for stud RB to run between the tackles as opposed to a Moss type WR. This offense is limited to the pass game being the run game AND is predicated on the middle of the field. That is limiting when facing quality defenses that can pressure and cover. A stud RB would bring in the play action and help limit the pressure Brady is facing as the Dline will have to respect the back.

But to your point on what a legit WR would do. He would not allow the safeties to creep up into the box which would open the middle of the field more for Brady and of course where Brady does have time he can find him outside the numbers.

For sure injuries have been one of our biggest nemesis but that is football. But my biggest reason for getting the quality back is to stop our receivers, in particular Edelman and Lewis from having to sub as our run game so they take less punishment and therefore are injured less. Brady would take less hits as well and our Oline would be back on its heels less in pass protection.

 

[chevss454]

So if part of this "formula" is to "pressure Brady", then how does a deep threat alter that?

If the defense is putting pressure on TFB+, then just how is having a WR running a deep route going to make a difference?

If he doesn't have enough time to hit the quick routes, in what universe, would he have enough time to hit the deep routes?

It makes no sense, IMHO, to claim that we need to "take the top off the defense", or whatever trendy phrase is current for having a WR pose a deep threat, as an antidote to the defense putting pressure on the QB.

Those routes simply take too much time to make any difference in how the rush can or cannot effect the game.

Now if your point is that we need to be able to stretch the field horizontally to free up the middle, then I have no argument.

I would love to have the ability to force the defense to cover side line to sideline, with the short routes, to prevent them from clogging the middle.

However, that doesn't necessarily mean we need a "Deep threat WR" to do that.

How many times has Gronk or a RB lined up wide and drawn a LB in coverage?

I'd take that matchup any day.

Even if a DB lines up with Gronk wide, it's probably a mismatch.

If they double cover Gronk out wide, that leaves less people to cover the middle.

So there's still a whole lot one can do with scheme, to gain a mismatch and high probability play, which is exactly what was discussed in the link I cited in the OP.

Simple question.

In all these playoff losses that you cite, how many occurred where injuries didn't limit the performance of one of the TE's, slot receivers, and/or RB's?

Yes, I realize injuries are part of the game and are not an excuse. My point is that your alleged "formula" seems to work, barely, when injuries limit the ability of the offense to work as intended.

So on what basis do you suggest that if we had a "deep threat WR" that that element of the offense would be immune to injury?

You've already acknowledged JoJo's injury had an impact. So why wouldn't any other WR face a similar risk?

If you're suggesting that we keep sufficient WR's on the 53 man roster to ensure that injuries won't impact that position, which other position do you suggest we reduce the number of players?

It's always a crap shoot deciding how much depth you need at any given position, and if one has a rash of injuries in a certain spot it's easy to second guess the GM/Coach.

Excellent post, OPT, and I agree. We've discussed the need to force defenses to cover the field horizontally to free up Brady's short passing game since Moss left. Stretching the field horizontally forces the DBs closer to the LOS which makes it easier to scheme for our receivers to get behind them. With DA in the slot, JE at flanker and Hogan/MMitchell/Dobson? outside the numbers running slants, curls and comebacks (as well as Gronk and MBennett at TE), teams are going to have a hard time containing this offense.

Coincidentally, Malcolm Mitchell was asked to do at Georgia exactly what BB will want him doing for us, imo. Here's the route tree of Mitchell at GA.



And he ran them with great precision. Those quick developing slants, curls and comebacks along with the threat of a hitch and go should have defenders on their heels. Furthermore, Mitchell was very effective at his craft for GA:
On 80 routes run vs man, Mitchell beat his man 74% of the time,
On 53 routes vs zone, Mitchell won 78% of the time, and
On 41 routes vs man-press, Mitchell won on 71% of his routes.

To put these numbers in perspective, his win % vs man put Mitchell in the top 5 for this draft class and in the top 8 for the other 2 categories. There's more - Mitchell's 68% contested catch rate puts him well above the average of 59% and his speed, explosion and hand size (10.5") put him in the 72nd, 91st and 97th percentile.

Now check out Mitchell's success on various routes run at GA.
His bread and butter fits TB's perfectly - short to intermediate but with the threat to go long.


BB got a steal when he drafted MMitchell. He's a perfect fit for what this offense wants to do. One of Hogan/Dobson/other can fill in outside if Mitchell doesn't catch on quickly but I believe Mitchell will be a starter before the season is over barring injury.

To be honest, I would settle for stud RB to run between the tackles as opposed to a Moss type WR. This offense is limited to the pass game being the run game AND is predicated on the middle of the field. That is limiting when facing quality defenses that can pressure and cover. A stud RB would bring in the play action and help limit the pressure Brady is facing as the Dline will have to respect the back.

But to your point on what a legit WR would do. He would not allow the safeties to creep up into the box which would open the middle of the field more for Brady and of course where Brady does have time he can find him outside the numbers.

I'm pretty happy with Blount as a big guy even though he's not that stud you seek. For me, Dion Lewis is a guy that Josh McD can use in a variety of ways to be that stud. I'm not ready for this offense to become a powerhouse running team any time soon when the short passing game has served it so well.

Fix the OL and spread defenses horizontally and we're golden imo.

 

[Jaric]

It's true. He watches Chad Pennington throw and says, "Holy crap, what a laser!"

Peyton Manning thinks Brady throws ducks.

 

[AZPats]

I still say you are putting the cart before the horse. BB is still constructing a line that can provide reliable holes for the good RB. Its about finished IMHO,then BB can invest in a great RB. Since they usually have a short half life. Opening the middle by negating the cheating Safeties still works... if you have the personnel.

 

[O_P_T]

peyton manning thinks brady throws rides duck boats.

fyp

 

[Patriots71]

Peyton Manning thinks Brady throws ducks.

Manning's passes actually turned into punts at some point, receivers were having to fair catch them.

 

[Mazz22]

I still say you are putting the cart before the horse. BB is still constructing a line that can provide reliable holes for the good RB. Its about finished IMHO,then BB can invest in a great RB. Since they usually have a short half life. Opening the middle by negating the cheating Safeties still works... if you have the personnel.

BB is never going to invest in a quality back. He was done after taking Maroney high. I would settle for a Ridley who does not fumble. That seems to be the best we can hope for.

 

[O_P_T]

I still say you are putting the cart before the horse. BB is still constructing a line that can provide reliable holes for the good RB. Its about finished IMHO,then BB can invest in a great RB. Since they usually have a short half life. Opening the middle by negating the cheating Safeties still works... if you have the personnel.

Actually, BB is still trying to put a potent 2 TE set together and run the 12 formation.

Maybe Bennet will be that second guy.

With 2 TE's that can block and receive, we don't need a stud RB.

If we line up in 12 formation and the defense has their run stopping personnel in there, or pack the box to stop the run, we release the TE's and pass the ball.

If they try and stop the pass, we have the bodies to overmatch the defenders at the point of attack and should be able to run the ball.

For such an offense a "3rd down" type RB is a better choice than a powerhouse type runner.

 

[dchester]

BB is never going to invest in a quality back. He was done after taking Maroney high. I would settle for a Ridley who does not fumble. That seems to be the best we can hope for.

I'd "settle" for another Corey Dillon type RB.

 

[TommyD420]

Manning's passes actually turned into punts at some point, receivers were having to fair catch them.

I seriously thought he killed poor Manny Sanders a couple of times last year.