The
Buffalo Bills (5-4) will go for their third straight win over a divisional opponent when they visit the unbeaten
New England Patriots (9-0) in the
Week 11 Monday night matchup. The Bills have beaten the
Miami Dolphins and
New York Jets in their last two games, and they are 3-1 straight up and against the spread on the road this season with the lone loss coming in London versus the
Jacksonville Jaguars.
Point spread: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark
(line updates and matchup report).
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.4-15.9 Patriots win
Why the Bills can cover the spread
While Buffalo has lost 18 of the past 20 meetings with New England, only one of those came with
Rex Ryan as head coach. Ryan obviously knows the Patriots very well from his time with the New York Jets, and the Bills played them tough in the first meeting back in Week 2 before falling 40-32 as one-point home favorites.
The fact that they were actually favored against the defending Super Bowl champions says a lot about the respect oddsmakers had for Ryan and his team heading into that matchup.
After the surprising 34-31 loss to the Jaguars, Buffalo has played much better defensively, limiting the Dolphins and Jets to 17 points apiece during the team’s two-game winning streak. The Bills are not equipped offensively to win a shootout, as they have surrendered an average of 33 points in their four losses. But playing great defense against New England can keep them in this game and give them a chance to win.
Why the Patriots can cover the spread
The Patriots are one of the most resourceful teams in the NFL, which is why their backers should not panic too much with wide receiver Julian Edelman likely out for the rest of the regular season with a broken foot.
They originally acquired Danny Amendola from the
St. Louis Rams to fill the role of the departed
Wes Welker, and Edelman just happened to emerge around the same time to become one of quarterback Tom Brady’s favorite targets. Now it’s Amendola’s opportunity to seize the moment and step up.
Brady has done an outstanding job throughout his career of utilizing whatever offensive weapons he has at his disposal, which is why he is a four-time Super Bowl champion and surefire Hall of Famer. With running back Dion Lewis out with a torn ACL, he has leaned more on LeGarrette Blount to carry a heavier load. And Blount has responded by totaling 195 yards on 48 carries with two touchdowns in the last two games.
Smart pick
While the first meeting was a high-scoring affair, expect the defenses for both teams to take center stage here in prime time and lead to a much lower-scoring game.
The under is 9-3 for the Bills in their past 12 games as underdogs and has also cashed in New England’s last two home games,
so look for this one to dip below the total.
Betting trends
The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on the road against the Patriots in November.
The Patriots are 13-2 straight up and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
The Bills are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after consecutive wins.