Big Chiefs fan, big Patriots hater, but realistic football guy.
The homer in me thinks the Chiefs are the more talented team in this game. The Pats have suffered some injuries and I think the only way they can move the ball on offense is if Edelman or Amendola are healthy. As a big fantasy guy who drafts a lot of Patriots every year, I watched at least 10 Patriots games in their entirety and the Pats offense just wasn't quite the same (obviously) after Lewis/Edelman suffered their injuries. Before that, I honestly predicted the Pats were going to finally take down that 19-0 as Brady's final **** you to Mr. Goodell.
Can Edelman shake off the rust? I mean, I have to doubt this. If the Chiefs struggle on anything defensively, it's the short passing game. A healthy Edelman would be a huge problem to KC. The Pats have no shot to run on KC and I know they know that. The first Pats game against the Jets I played Brady/Gronk in all of my FanDuel lineups because I knew the Pats knew they weren't running on the Jets and Brady proceeded to chuck 60 passes (with LaFell dropping approximately half of those).
I imagine the game plan, barring terrible/worse than predicted weather, for the Pats will be predicated on their short passing game. Just like how they beat Seattle, that's really the only way to beat KC's defense.
As for the Chiefs offense? You can't game plan for them because you never know what they're going to be. They are generally pretty good for the first few drives, and then, if they get up by 2 scores, they panic, shell up, and become predictable, one-dimensional, and overly cautious.
Now, if the Chiefs do get up multiple scores, especially early, I'd bet my bottom dollar the Pats will make a run and at some point either tie the game or be in position to take the lead. Reid likes to play with fire like that.
If the Chiefs go down multiple scores, at any point? Game is over.
Alex Smith is a very good QB playing with a lead. Alex Smith is about the worst QB in the NFL when he has to become one dimensional and playing from behind by more than 1 score.
It's been 3 years and I'm not quite sure Alex Smith has ever generated a single scoring drive in a 2nd half 2 minute drill in a 1 score game.
This is the 1 game where I think Bill Belichick might actually be confused on how to game plan, though. It's just so hard to game plan our offense because you just never know what Andy Reid is going to do on a week to week basis. I watch this team religiously and I still have no idea what is going to happen.
I will say ... I wish they'd stop featuring Charcandrick West, like, ever. He's good, don't get me wrong ... but Spencer Ware is a flat out beast. He's basically a humble Marshawn Lynch at this point. He's perfect for a cold weather game like this one.
