MMy guess is the Pats end up with a higher rated defense than the Jesters next year
I think that's a distinct possibility.
For all the hype of the Jets defense, from a pure personnel perspective they just aren't that good:
- Their DL is very average. Kris Jenkins is a beast when on but can't be counted on for a full season. Sione Pouha is average as a backup NT. Shaun Ellis turns 33 and is undersized against the run. Rodrique Wright, Jason Lamb and Vernon Gholston are hardly overwhelming at the other DE spot.
- Their starting ILBs are very solid with David Harris and Bart Scott. Not much depth after that, however.
- Their OLBs are solid but not spectacular, with Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas. I don't think Jason Taylor is going to be much of a factor. Kevin Basped is an unproven rookie. Kenwin Cummings is a JAG.
- Jim Leonhard is a solid if undersized safety. Eric Smith has been inconsistent. Brodney Pool hasn't been overwhelming in 5 previous seasons.
- CB is obviously the strength of the defense. Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, Kyle Wilson and Dwight Lowery are a very deep and strong group.
I don't see anything about the Jets' defensive personnel that screams out that they should be much better than everyone else. In particular, they are very lacking in depth, and a couple of injuries could devestate their defense. I also think that they achieved a lot by virtue of scheming with smoke and mirrors last season, and teams will eventually adjust to them, much as they did with Buddy Ryan's 4-6 defense. Once teams figure out how to deal with the scheme, the personnel just isn't good enough to dominate. I think the Ravens and Steelers both have stronger overall personnel on defense.
I think the Pats have a much deeper defense across the board, at almost every position (CB is comparable). The Pats have a better DL and better safeties. The Jets have better starting OLBs and the best CB in Revis (though the Pats CBs otherwise should be able to hold their own).
I will personally be surprised if the Jets defense dominates this year. I think it's quite possible that they end up not in the top 5.