The Seahawks were down four with 26 seconds remaining. Seattle faced a second-and-goal. They had one timeout remaining and New England, with three defensive backs on the field, lined up in man-to-man coverage against Seattle’s three-receiver set.
In the NFL, with man-to-man coverage, the advantage goes to the offense. After burning two timeouts earlier in the drive, and with only 26 seconds remaining, it was not really feasible for the Seahawks to run the ball three straight plays. If they ran the ball on second down and failed, they would need to call their final timeout. Without a timeout, if they ran and were stopped on third down, it is unlikely they would have time to lineup for a fourth-down attempt. There are massive pileups at the goal line and it takes a while to get unpiled and set up. Obviously, three plays to score the go-ahead touchdown are better than two.
Historically, though, interceptions occur on only 3.1% of passing plays from the 1-yard line. The Seahawks ran nine plays [in 2014] from the goal line, running the ball seven times (scoring just three times, 42.9%) and throwing twice (scoring once).
Let’s look at the specific situation: down by four to eight points (one possession but more than a field goal) with under one minute remaining. Since 2000, there are 73 such situations with a success rate of just 42.5%—dramatically lower than the rest of the game. Passes converted 48.5% of the time and rushes a measly 37.5% on 40 attempts.
Was the decision to throw the ball the worst play call in history? Not even close.
If the Seahawks score there, no one thinks twice about the decision. Instead, Belichick would be ridiculed for the blatant mistake of not taking his timeouts once the Seahawks were in a goal-to-go scenario. But the interception happened, so it’s Carroll taking the heat.
