AFC Championship, Patriots at Broncos, Sunday Jan 24, 3pm CBS

Pretty sure BB is baiting that idiot coach in Denver into believing that this formation is run every time. Then BAM!!! Bomb to Martin.

I do hope you're right about this. The fact is, however, that Joshy has been super-predictable with their "pounding" backs, going back to Corey Dillon. It would be a sweet time to break the tendency, but when Jackson is in the game, they're like 80-90% run to this point.

---------- Post added at 08:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:44 PM ----------

Omar Bolden is out with a PCL tear, http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14596723/omar-bolden-denver-broncos-playoffs

This is big as he is their best PR.

He missed the first game too, and they struggled on punt return. Ryan Allen didn't have a great game (and nor did he last Saturday), but this gives him a chance to shine for once.
 
I do hope you're right about this. The fact is, however, that Joshy has been super-predictable with their "pounding" backs, going back to Corey Dillon. It would be a sweet time to break the tendency, but when Jackson is in the game, they're like 80-90% run to this point.

---------- Post added at 08:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:44 PM ----------



He missed the first game too, and they struggled on punt return. Ryan Allen didn't have a great game (and nor did he last Saturday), but this gives him a chance to shine for once.

I hope they are doing a rope-a-dope regarding Jackson. The last 2 years he was healthy he averaged about 2 catches per game for about 12 yards, not otherworldly, but enough to move the chains and make the defense respect it. He can get a lot of YAC. He did have a catch against the Dolphins for 20 yards. I just hope they can get him going in the running game to open up the absent of late play action passes.
 
I hope they are doing a rope-a-dope regarding Jackson. The last 2 years he was healthy he averaged about 2 catches per game for about 12 yards, not otherworldly, but enough to move the chains and make the defense respect it. He can get a lot of YAC. He did have a catch against the Dolphins for 20 yards. I just hope they can get him going in the running game to open up the absent of late play action passes.

They have to do it the first time they get into the formation. That's the only time you're going to hit something huge, because you know they'll be beating that into the defense's heads in film study. You should be able to take advantage of Talib most of all, who saw that in practice a billion times.

The problem is, they will have zero chance to pop any runs UNLESS they break the tendency at some point.
 
They have to do it the first time they get into the formation. That's the only time you're going to hit something huge, because you know they'll be beating that into the defense's heads in film study. You should be able to take advantage of Talib most of all, who saw that in practice a billion times.

The problem is, they will have zero chance to pop any runs UNLESS they break the tendency at some point.

Agreed, 2.4 yards per attempt with him doesn't strike fear in the hearts of defenses.
 
Agreed, 2.4 yards per attempt with him doesn't strike fear in the hearts of defenses.

And it would be 2.4 with anyone they decide to put back there. This is not an SJax thing. Blount, same thing, JAG same thing, White, same thing.
 
LETS GO BOYS

I'm feeling great about this game. The Denver offense made the Steelers defense look adequate.
 
There's only one X factor for this game and his name is Edelman. Even at 80%, he's the Bronco killer. How well we use him in getting us 6's is what counts. Hope BB gets the run D on point this week. We need to stop their run and force PM to throw. A long time ago it would be the worst gameplan but lmao PM has not looked good throwing
 
Even if we lose this game, they will still be jealous in Indy. #participantbanner
 
LETS GO BOYS

I'm feeling great about this game. The Denver offense made the Steelers defense look adequate.

Agreed. Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the divisional round. Note that the Patriots played the best game by far according to FO. Thank goodness for the return of our injured players.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...9-dvoa-ratings
<table><tbody><tr><td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">DVOA (with opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">5%</td> <td class="auto-style8">24%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">74%</td> <td class="auto-style8">60%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">39%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-37%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-18%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">53%</td> <td class="auto-style8">47%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">33%</td> <td class="auto-style8">30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">32%</td> <td class="auto-style6">41%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">30%</td> <td class="auto-style6">3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">VOA (no opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style8">38%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">55%</td> <td class="auto-style8">48%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">-2%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-17%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-12%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-23%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">18%</td> <td class="auto-style8">7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">14%</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">13%</td> <td class="auto-style6">14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">8%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-5%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Agreed. Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the divisional round. Note that the Patriots played the best game by far according to FO. Thank goodness for the return of our injured players.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...9-dvoa-ratings
<table><tbody><tr><td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">DVOA (with opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">5%</td> <td class="auto-style8">24%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">74%</td> <td class="auto-style8">60%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">39%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-37%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-18%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">53%</td> <td class="auto-style8">47%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">33%</td> <td class="auto-style8">30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">32%</td> <td class="auto-style6">41%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">30%</td> <td class="auto-style6">3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">VOA (no opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style8">38%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">55%</td> <td class="auto-style8">48%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">-2%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-17%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-12%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-23%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">18%</td> <td class="auto-style8">7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">14%</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">13%</td> <td class="auto-style6">14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">8%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-5%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

NE is the only winning team to have a better rating than the team it beat :spock:
 
Agreed. Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the divisional round. Note that the Patriots played the best game by far according to FO. Thank goodness for the return of our injured players.


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvo...9-dvoa-ratings
<table><tbody><tr><td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">DVOA (with opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">5%</td> <td class="auto-style8">24%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">74%</td> <td class="auto-style8">60%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">39%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-37%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-18%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">53%</td> <td class="auto-style8">47%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-3%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">33%</td> <td class="auto-style8">30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">32%</td> <td class="auto-style6">41%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">30%</td> <td class="auto-style6">3%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td> <table class="stats" border="1" cellpadding="2"> <tbody><tr> <td colspan="5" align="center">VOA (no opponent adjustments)</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center">TEAM</td> <td align="center">TOT</td> <td align="center">OFF</td> <td align="center">DEF</td> <td align="center">ST</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">KC</td> <td class="auto-style8">-30%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-1%</td> <td class="auto-style8">38%</td> <td class="auto-style8">10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">NE</td> <td class="auto-style8">55%</td> <td class="auto-style8">48%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">3%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>GB</td> <td class="auto-style6">-2%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-17%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>ARI</td> <td class="auto-style6">-12%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-23%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-6%</td> <td class="auto-style6">5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">SEA</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">18%</td> <td class="auto-style8">7%</td> <td class="auto-style8">4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="auto-style10">CAR</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> <td class="auto-style8">14%</td> <td class="auto-style8">15%</td> <td class="auto-style8">-4%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>PIT</td> <td class="auto-style6">13%</td> <td class="auto-style6">14%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-10%</td> </tr> <tr> <td>DEN</td> <td class="auto-style6">8%</td> <td class="auto-style6">-5%</td> <td class="auto-style6">7%</td> <td class="auto-style6">20%</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

I find this really interesting, because I thought the Patriots left a ton on the field on Saturday. They played good, not great.

I'm certainly not convinced of any sort of blowout, and I'm a little surprised there's so much sentiment that there will be, tbh.
 
I find this really interesting, because I thought the Patriots left a ton on the field on Saturday. They played good, not great.

I'm certainly not convinced of any sort of blowout, and I'm a little surprised there's so much sentiment that there will be, tbh.

Possibly another OT game...
 
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